Post
by BertTuyt » Sat Sep 29, 2012 20:17
Michel I recognize your point.
With these differences it is very difficult to prove that you have found an improvement (or it should be something completely disruptive).
Think that Ed already used 3-move ballot matches to compare different versions of Kingsrow.
But I'm afraid that is the consequence of the rules of the Draughts game the draw margin is just too big.
So i can agree with Rein with a killer version differences would become far more visible.
When all programs would use 64bit, bitboards, 8p Endgame DB's (and for storage SSD in stead of HD), multicore processor (or even better dual processor) with parallel search and huge memories (today you can already buy a 2011 socket board with 8 DIMM slots, and 8 GByte for one slot is affordable, which makes 64 GByte, for DB cache , transposition table, ..), then the situation would even be worse.
So far not all programs use these options , but step by step you see more programs as Kingsrow, Damy (think Damy also uses parallel search), Damage, Dragon, Sjende Blyn, Maximus (im not sure if i did forgot one, in case sorry) .
The traditional programs like TD-King, Tornado, DIOS, Dam, X.X, GWD, Dream, Cerberus, (to name a few) should really make this step, otherwise they will loose connection.
A side effect is that the tournaments ,as we have today, more and more become a lottery (in the case all the top programs participate). Even if on program is stronger and would win a 158-games match with (for example) 10 wins 5 losses, 143 draws, and this program has this result with all programs participating, then I'm not sure in the end it will win (I trust Rein could do the math here, how often this program would win out of 100 tournaments).
Most likely the program would win who has the luck that the opponent crashes, and therefore gets the 2 points.
So maybe within a few years we must really think how we want to continue, and where we want to add value to the equation.
We indeed might face a situation as with checkers, where human-machine matches or machine-machine matches i think are really rare events these days.
Also in Computer Chess there seems to be diminishing interest as all are now aware that computers are strong (take the problems the CSVN has to attract and maintain members), and thanks to open communication (which is good !) everyone can assemble a ELO 3000 clone.
The option not to communicate and not to share is for me also not the way to proceed.
Therefore I really support Rein in sharing code and ideas.
Maybe one day we should return to the basics of Artificial Intelligence, not with brute force, but will intelligent programs which learn from mistakes, and have self-improvement capabilities.
But maybe there is a dark horse, a new program (or existing one with disruptive superior new ideas) which will beat anyone. Then at least we have a target to focus on....
Bert