Complexity of Checkers and Draughts on board sizes 6x6/8x8/10x10/12x12/14x14

[jj]

Complexity of Checkers and Draughts on board sizes 6x6/8x8/10x10/12x12/14x14

The complexity of games is usually expressed by two numbers: the state-space complexity (SSC) and the game-tree complexity (GTC). The SSC is the number of positions that can be reached from the initial position. The GTC is usually estimated by b^d, where b is the branching factor and d is the average depth (game length in ply).

I'm interested in the complexity of checkers on board sizes 6x6 (small) and 8x8 (normal), and the complexity of draughts on board sizes 6x6 (small), 8x8 (Russian/Brazilian), 10x10 (International), 12x12 (Canadian) and 14x14 (South-African, a.k.a. Dumm). So we have 2 sets of rules and 5 board sizes.

5_sizes_dia.png (13.33 KiB) Viewed 23579 times

State-Space Complexity

In [1] the SSC of 8x8 checkers is calculated, and we can generalize the given formula to:

SSC formula.png (7.82 KiB) Viewed 23579 times

for NxN boards, where n = max. # of pieces on the board, m = N(N-2) / 4 = max. # of pieces per color, b = # black men, B = # black kings, w = # white men, W = # white kings, f = # black men on the first row, R = N/2 = # dark squares on 1 row, and S = N2 / 2 = # dark squares on the board.

Applying this formula on the 5 board formats, we obtain (for 1 color to move):

Code: Select all

Board size  SSC <=
6x6         63838220543                                                         = 6.4 x 10^10
8x8         500995484682338672639                                               = 5.0 x 10^20 [1]
10x10       2301985676687843186738387267616767                                  = 2.3 x 10^33
12x12       5732895173337388545809530684864049716501476802559                   = 5.7 x 10^48
14x14       4969247364259229765636136727875248396725305632355107910329548406783 = 5.0 x 10^66

These are only upper bounds; the real numbers are (much) lower, even if we take into account that we need the number for both colors to move (a factor 2). For 6x6 checkers and 6x6 draughts I calculated the exact numbers, as they can be counted using a simple non-recursive function that traverses the entire game tree, keeping a large array in RAM with 1 bit per position (for both colors to move: 63838220543 x 2 = 127676441086 positions).

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

// assume an array with 1 bit per position (init all zero)
// upon completion, this contains the reachability database
function countDepthFirstWithMemory(Board board) : long integer
    count, ply := 0, 0                                 // ply is only for comment
    current := new Node(board)                         // root node (no parent)
    while current != null do
        if retrieve(index(current.board)) then         // visited before?
            current := selectNext(current)
        else                                           // new position
            store(index(current.board))
            count++
            if current.isTerminal() then
                current := selectNext(current)
            else
                generateChildren(current)
                current := current.children[0]
                ply++
            fi
        fi
    od
    return count
end

function selectNext(Node node) : Node
    while node.parent != null do
        if node.hasNextSibling() then
            return node.nextSibling()
        else
            node.children := null                     // remove subtrees
            node := node.parent
            ply--
        fi
    od
    return null
end

Code: Select all

Game          SSC             % of all  Max.Depth      Time  Nodes/sec
6x6 checkers  27,364,174,047     21.4%    407,888  14:07:29    538,146
6x6 draughts  10,075,772,480      7.9%    123,536   5:33:57    502,858

In [2] an estimate is given for the SSC of 10x10 draughts: 10^30 (no calculation given).

Game-Tree Complexity

In [2] estimates are given for the GTC of 8x8 checkers (b^d = 2.8^70 = 10^31) and 10x10 draughts (b^d = 4^90 = 10^54). These are still often cited, see e.g. [4]. However, in [3] the GTC of 8x8 checkers was corrected to b^d = 6.14^50 = 10^40, using several games databases.
10x10 draughts needs a similar correction. Using all 500,000+ games from the database Turbo Dambase [5], I find b^d = 8.22^101 = 2.5 x 10^92. So like checkers much higher than previously estimated.

The GTC of the other variants is unknown. To estimate these, we need to know the branching factor and the average game length. These are determined experimentally. To this end, I developed a basic engine (named 'General') that can play all games at a reasonable level. Properties: data structure: single-dimensional array; search: principal variation search, transposition table, history heuristic, repetition check, single-move extension, quiescence search (side captures only), single thread, no forward pruning; evaluation: material (king = 1.5 men for checkers, king = sqrt(N) men for NxN draughts, runaways, outpost safety, balance, center control, mobility, holes, drawish material, trapped kings for checkers, mainly missing element: locks; parameters are hand-tuned; no opening book; no endgame databases; randomized: shuffle root move list before search. Tested for 10x10 draughts, the version with positional evaluation scored 78.5% against the material-only version (158 games, 5 sec/move).
The resulting program can beat me, a former 10x10 draughts club player, in all variants. The 10x10 version scores about 1 draw per 20 games against Maximus (equal time), which amounts to expert level.

Before starting the experiment (playing a large amount of games) the following questions have to be answered.
1. When do we stop a game that will probably end in a draw?
2. How much time (or depth) do we give the program, for games to be representative?
3. How many games do we play?

For draughts there is a natural moment to stop a game: if the search score is near zero and we have drawish material: the player who is behind has a king and the other player has 3 or less pieces (10x10, 12x12, 14x14) or 2 or less pieces (6x6, 8x8; exception: 1 king against 3 is also a draw when the king-alone is on the main diagonal - if I am not mistaken).
For checkers there is no such moment. 2 kings win against 1, and sometimes also 1 against 1. The solution is to play with a high max. game length, and later truncate the games when a certain number of pieces is left. This corresponds to stopping when a virtual endgame database is reached (and we only want to know the game length, not the result). And this corresponds roughly to human players agreeing to a draw or resigning when they can predict the outcome. For 8x8 checkers the game length corresponds to the game length in human games if a 10-pieces (virtual) database is used - the largest feasible database that actually exists. For 10x10 draughts this is 8-pieces, for 12x12 draughts this would be 7-pieces, and for 14x14 draughts 6-pieces. For 6x6 checkers and 6x6 draughts I generated the 8-pieces database, but truncating games at 8 pieces results in artificially short games so I used 6-pieces in these cases (a bit arbitrary).

It is unclear which time or depth would be appropriate, so I chose to use incremental depth, which also makes it possible to observe the trend. I decided to play 10,000 games at each depth from 0 to at least 7, giving at least 70,000 games per variant. The games were stored, later truncated, duplicate games were removed, then the averages per game and per position were calculated. In total, over 600,000 games were played, of which over 450,000 unique (182 CPU days; 21 calendar days on 3 multi-core computers).

Branching Factor.png (18.1 KiB) Viewed 23579 times

Each datapoint represents <= 10,000 unique games.

Game Length.png (24.61 KiB) Viewed 23579 times

The branching factors found for 8x8 checkers and 10x10 draughts are higher than the previously found values for human games (checkers: 6.32 vs. 6.14; draughts: 8.95 vs. 8.22). This is influenced by the value of the evaluation mobility parameter. A lower value for mobility results in a lower branching factor. I tried several values and decided to use the one that resulted in the strongest play. Also the game length for 10x10 draughts is 10 ply more than in human games. But human games contain blunders, losing on time and grandmaster-draws, so the question is which number is more reliable.
Anyway, it means that we should take the following results with a grain of salt, they are ballpark figures. For the branching factor I took the average over all games with search depth 3 and higher, for the game length I took the average over all games with the 3 highest search depths. This gives:

Code: Select all

Game            Trunc.#p.    b^d      GTC >=
6x6 checkers    6         4.37^38   = 2.2 x 10^24
8x8 checkers    10        6.32^49   = 1.7 x 10^39
6x6 draughts    6         3.75^19   = 8.1 x 10^10
8x8 draughts    10        6.13^43   = 7.3 x 10^33
10x10 draughts  8         8.95^110  = 5.0 x 10^104
12x12 draughts  7        13.36^200  = 1.4 x 10^225
14x14 draughts  6        18.42^320  = 7.8 x 10^404

6x6 checkers and 6x6 draughts were also weakly solved (both are a draw), by building the 8-pieces WDL (win/draw/loss) databases and by using PNS (proof-number search), without a transposition table to avoid the GHI problem. But even the 4-pieces db's are sufficient for a quick proof (a few seconds). These games were previously solved by Rein Halbersma [6], using alpha-beta and a transposition table but without endgame databases (and disregarding GHI).
The 8-pieces DTW (distance-to-win) databases for 6x6 checkers and 6x6 draughts were also built. The longest win in 6x6 checkers is 147 ply (with 68 consecutive king-slide-moves), in 6x6 draughts this is 83 ply.

Conclusions

The following figure shows the results found, compared to some popular games from literature.

Complexity.png (22.14 KiB) Viewed 23579 times

Concluding, we can say that:
1. 6x6 checkers and 6x6 draughts are weakly solved.
2. 8x8 checkers is weakly solved [3]. 8x8 draughts is a candidate to weakly solve, and it can be solved much faster than checkers.
3. 10x10 draughts is more complex than currently "known" in the literature. The complexity is closer to chess than to checkers. Weakly solving 10x10 draughts is far away.
4. 12x12 draughts is more complex than chess, and very tactical (is my impression; I lost all test games).
5. 14x14 draughts is more complex than Go, and very strategic (is my impression; I won a few test games).

More complex means a game has a higher GTC, not necessarily it is more difficult. Especially 14x14 draughts will be a tough game for computers. Methods that are known to be highly successful for 8x8 checkers and 10x10 draughts will start to break down. There is virtually no use for an opening book and endgame databases, search depth will be strategically insignificant (compared to game length), and evaluation becomes increasingly difficult (to learn). So maybe AlphaGo-like techniques start to get useful here. And we don't have to get bored in the years to come.

Jan-Jaap

References
[1] Schaeffer & Lake: Solving the Game of Checkers (1996)
[2] Allis: Searching for Solutions in Games and Artificial Intelligence (1994)
[3] Schaeffer: Game over, Black to play and draw in Checkers (2007)
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_complexity
[5] http://www.turbodambase.nl/tdamhome.php
[6] http://www.laatste.info/bb3/viewtopic.p ... &start=698

[Rein Halbersma]

Wow, nice overview Jan-Jaap! I have lots of questions, but first some easy ones.

Does your program generalize to W X H boards? The reason I ask is that in the special case that W = H +/- 1 or H +/- 2, (or vice versa), a 3 kings vs 1 king endgame is generally won instead of drawn. In Russia, there have been 10x8 (10 width) tournaments and here in the Netherlands the late Tjalling Goedemoed has organized some tournaments on 10x11 and 10x12 boards.

Did you actually build databases on a 14x14 board? How long did that take?

[jj]

Wow, nice overview Jan-Jaap! I have lots of questions, but first some easy ones.

Does your program generalize to W X H boards? The reason I ask is that in the special case that W = H +/- 1 or H +/- 2, (or vice versa), a 3 kings vs 1 king endgame is generally won instead of drawn. In Russia, there have been 10x8 (10 width) tournaments and here in the Netherlands the late Tjalling Goedemoed has organized some tournaments on 10x11 and 10x12 boards.

Did you actually build databases on a 14x14 board? How long did that take?

Thank you. No, my program is written for N x N boards specifically. It is possible to generalize it to W x H, but that may be quite some work. I was vaguely aware that non-square boards may change the draw margin in the endgame, but I didn't have to consider that.

No, I only built the endgame databases for 6x6 checkers and 6x6 draughts (and, just now, for 10x10 draughts). But these were not used in the experiment, as they were part of a separate program ('Hexamus') with the code derived from Maximus. It uses bitboards and is better suited for db generation and solving the games (from a performance point of view).

For the experiment (with program 'General') I needed a stopping criterion for the games, so I pretend to have a database (a "virtual" database) with as many pieces as would be practically feasible for the current game type, and truncate a game when that number of pieces is left on the board. The assumption is that this gives a game length (never mind the game result) which more or less resembles the game length of human games, which are often used in GTC calculations.

[Rein Halbersma]

Thank you. No, my program is written for N x N boards specifically. It is possible to generalize it to W x H, but that may be quite some work. I was vaguely aware that non-square boards may change the draw margin in the endgame, but I didn't have to consider that.

It is not that hard in my experience to generalize an NxN program to WxH. I only use "naked" width and height in writing position diagrams to stdout, and in some eval patterns (column balance etc.). All other stuff is hidden behind a table that maps square numbers to bit numbers. I assume that you also use such a square mapping for your array-based program, because it removes even/odd rows in move generation and eval. In that square mapping, some stuff depends on width and height. In any case, you have the perft numbers to compare in case you want to add it (and I'd love to have confirmation!).

[jj]

It is not that hard in my experience to generalize an NxN program to WxH. I only use "naked" width and height in writing position diagrams to stdout, and in some eval patterns (column balance etc.). All other stuff is hidden behind a table that maps square numbers to bit numbers. I assume that you also use such a square mapping for your array-based program, because it removes even/odd rows in move generation and eval. In that square mapping, some stuff depends on width and height. In any case, you have the perft numbers to compare in case you want to add it (and I'd love to have confirmation!).

I was also thinking about GUI, PDN, DXP, etc. But if you only need perft confirmations I can have a look. Do you have a list of what you want?

[Rein Halbersma]

It is not that hard in my experience to generalize an NxN program to WxH. I only use "naked" width and height in writing position diagrams to stdout, and in some eval patterns (column balance etc.). All other stuff is hidden behind a table that maps square numbers to bit numbers. I assume that you also use such a square mapping for your array-based program, because it removes even/odd rows in move generation and eval. In that square mapping, some stuff depends on width and height. In any case, you have the perft numbers to compare in case you want to add it (and I'd love to have confirmation!).

I was also thinking about GUI, PDN, DXP, etc. But if you only need perft confirmations I can have a look. Do you have a list of what you want?

Here I did 12x10 and 10x12: viewtopic.php?t=4563
I am also thinking of doing 3 kings vs 1 king on 10x8 later this year. (I can generate perft now if you want to compare).

BTW, I just did perft for 6x6 (checkers and international) and 14x14 (international) to reasonable depth, so we can compare notes.

[Rein Halbersma]

Applying this formula on the 5 board formats, we obtain (for 1 color to move):

Code: Select all

Board size  SSC <=
6x6         63838220543                                                         = 6.4 x 10^10
8x8         500995484682338672639                                               = 5.0 x 10^20 [1]
10x10       2301985676687843186738387267616767                                  = 2.3 x 10^33
12x12       5732895173337388545809530684864049716501476802559                   = 5.7 x 10^48
14x14       4969247364259229765636136727875248396725305632355107910329548406783 = 5.0 x 10^66

For 14x14 I cannot confirm this. I just got a PM from the author of this post on talkchess: http://talkchess.com/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 16&t=27814

We both find 7.71788e+66 instead of 5.0e+66. Can you recompute and confirm?

[jj]

Applying this formula on the 5 board formats, we obtain (for 1 color to move):

Code: Select all

Board size  SSC <=
6x6         63838220543                                                         = 6.4 x 10^10
8x8         500995484682338672639                                               = 5.0 x 10^20 [1]
10x10       2301985676687843186738387267616767                                  = 2.3 x 10^33
12x12       5732895173337388545809530684864049716501476802559                   = 5.7 x 10^48
14x14       4969247364259229765636136727875248396725305632355107910329548406783 = 5.0 x 10^66

For 14x14 I cannot confirm this. I just got a PM from the author of this post on talkchess: http://talkchess.com/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 16&t=27814

We both find 7.71788e+66 instead of 5.0e+66. Can you recompute and confirm?

You are right, thanks for reporting this. I failed to notice overflow (negative numbers) in my binomial table for cases 12x12 and 14x14. I changed the table data type from 64-bit integer to BigInteger, and new results are:

Code: Select all

12x12       5732895173614141678179591577998733384657257103359                   = 5.7 x 10^48
14x14       7717880162220474034203925206374892518645244798128637950441522462719 = 7.7 x 10^66

[Rein Halbersma]

Code: Select all

14x14       4969247364259229765636136727875248396725305632355107910329548406783 = 5.0 x 10^66

For 14x14 I cannot confirm this. I just got a PM from the author of this post on talkchess: http://talkchess.com/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 16&t=27814

We both find 7.71788e+66 instead of 5.0e+66. Can you recompute and confirm?

You are right, thanks for reporting this. I failed to notice overflow (negative numbers) in my binomial table for cases 12x12 and 14x14. I changed the table data type from 64-bit integer to BigInteger, and new results are:

Code: Select all

12x12       5732895173614141678179591577998733384657257103359                   = 5.7 x 10^48
14x14       7717880162220474034203925206374892518645244798128637950441522462719 = 7.7 x 10^66

Good to hear! I did my calculations in an R script, so only floating point result. I used to have a Mathematica equivalent that did the full BigInteger calculations, but I no longer have a license for it. I trust that those final digits are correct

[jj]

From the thread 'Breakthrough Draughts', viewtopic.php?f=53&t=7805.

Code: Select all

Game          SSC             % of all  Max.Depth      Time  Nodes/sec
6x6 checkers  27,364,174,047     21.4%    407,888  14:07:29    538,146
6x6 draughts  10,075,772,480      7.9%    123,536   5:33:57    502,858

If you use breadth-first-search on this tree, you would find a max.depth a lot smaller than 400K.

it would be interesting to know how many iterations your method would take, i.e., what is the minimum depth to reach all positions?

My guess is that it is 1000x smaller than the 400K depth that you find for depth-first search

Correct! Having more memory now, I tried the breadth-first approach too.

Code: Select all

Game          SSC             Max.Depth      Time
6x6 checkers  27,364,174,047        283  30:03:38
6x6 draughts  10,075,772,480        314  11:48:55

breadth-first.png (13.7 KiB) Viewed 21116 times

last positions.png (9.16 KiB) Viewed 21116 times

Jan-Jaap

[Rein Halbersma]

I changed the table data type from 64-bit integer to BigInteger, and new results are:

Code: Select all

12x12       5732895173614141678179591577998733384657257103359                   = 5.7 x 10^48
14x14       7717880162220474034203925206374892518645244798128637950441522462719 = 7.7 x 10^66

My new Python program can now reproduce this on all digits

Code: Select all

7,717,880,162,220,474,034,203,925,206,374,892,518,645,244,798,128,637,950,441,522,462,719

[jj]

I changed the table data type from 64-bit integer to BigInteger, and new results are:

Code: Select all

12x12       5732895173614141678179591577998733384657257103359                   = 5.7 x 10^48
14x14       7717880162220474034203925206374892518645244798128637950441522462719 = 7.7 x 10^66

My new Python program can now reproduce this on all digits

Code: Select all

7,717,880,162,220,474,034,203,925,206,374,892,518,645,244,798,128,637,950,441,522,462,719

Great! Always good to have confirmation!

[pontel]

Complexity of Checkers and Draughts on board sizes 6x6/8x8/10x10/12x12/14x14

The complexity of games is usually expressed by two numbers: the state-space complexity (SSC) and the game-tree complexity (GTC). The SSC is the number of positions that can be reached from the initial position. The GTC is usually estimated by b^d, where b is the branching factor and d is the average depth (game length in ply).

I'm interested in the complexity of checkers on board sizes 6x6 (small) and 8x8 (normal), and the complexity of draughts on board sizes 6x6 (small), 8x8 (Russian/Brazilian), 10x10 (International), 12x12 (Canadian) and 14x14 (South-African, a.k.a. Dumm). So we have 2 sets of rules and 5 board sizes.
5_sizes_dia.png

State-Space Complexity

In [1] the SSC of 8x8 checkers is calculated, and we can generalize the given formula to:
SSC formula.png
for NxN boards, where n = max. # of pieces on the board, m = N(N-2) / 4 = max. # of pieces per color, b = # black men, B = # black kings, w = # white men, W = # white kings, f = # black men on the first row, R = N/2 = # dark squares on 1 row, and S = N2 / 2 = # dark squares on the board.

Applying this formula on the 5 board formats, we obtain (for 1 color to move):

Code: Select all

Board size  SSC <=
6x6         63838220543                                                         = 6.4 x 10^10
8x8         500995484682338672639                                               = 5.0 x 10^20 [1]
10x10       2301985676687843186738387267616767                                  = 2.3 x 10^33
12x12       5732895173337388545809530684864049716501476802559                   = 5.7 x 10^48
14x14       4969247364259229765636136727875248396725305632355107910329548406783 = 5.0 x 10^66

These are only upper bounds; the real numbers are (much) lower, even if we take into account that we need the number for both colors to move (a factor 2). For 6x6 checkers and 6x6 draughts I calculated the exact numbers, as they can be counted using a simple non-recursive function that traverses the entire game tree, keeping a large array in RAM with 1 bit per position (for both colors to move: 63838220543 x 2 = 127676441086 positions).

Spoiler:

Code: Select all

// assume an array with 1 bit per position (init all zero)
// upon completion, this contains the reachability database
function countDepthFirstWithMemory(Board board) : long integer
    count, ply := 0, 0                                 // ply is only for comment
    current := new Node(board)                         // root node (no parent)
    while current != null do
        if retrieve(index(current.board)) then         // visited before?
            current := selectNext(current)
        else                                           // new position
            store(index(current.board))
            count++
            if current.isTerminal() then
                current := selectNext(current)
            else
                generateChildren(current)
                current := current.children[0]
                ply++
            fi
        fi
    od
    return count
end

function selectNext(Node node) : Node
    while node.parent != null do
        if node.hasNextSibling() then
            return node.nextSibling()
        else
            node.children := null                     // remove subtrees
            node := node.parent
            ply--
        fi
    od
    return null
end

Code: Select all

Game          SSC             % of all  Max.Depth      Time  Nodes/sec
6x6 checkers  27,364,174,047     21.4%    407,888  14:07:29    538,146
6x6 draughts  10,075,772,480      7.9%    123,536   5:33:57    502,858

In [2] an estimate is given for the SSC of 10x10 draughts: 10^30 (no calculation given).

Game-Tree Complexity

In [2] estimates are given for the GTC of 8x8 checkers (b^d = 2.8^70 = 10^31) and 10x10 draughts (b^d = 4^90 = 10^54). These are still often cited, see e.g. [4]. However, in [3] the GTC of 8x8 checkers was corrected to b^d = 6.14^50 = 10^40, using several games databases.
10x10 draughts needs a similar correction. Using all 500,000+ games from the database Turbo Dambase [5], I find b^d = 8.22^101 = 2.5 x 10^92. So like checkers much higher than previously estimated.

The GTC of the other variants is unknown. To estimate these, we need to know the branching factor and the average game length. These are determined experimentally. To this end, I developed a basic engine (named 'General') that can play all games at a reasonable level. Properties: data structure: single-dimensional array; search: principal variation search, transposition table, history heuristic, repetition check, single-move extension, quiescence search (side captures only), single thread, no forward pruning; evaluation: material (king = 1.5 men for checkers, king = sqrt(N) men for NxN draughts, runaways, outpost safety, balance, center control, mobility, holes, drawish material, trapped kings for checkers, mainly missing element: locks; parameters are hand-tuned; no opening book; no endgame databases; randomized: shuffle root move list before search. Tested for 10x10 draughts, the version with positional evaluation scored 78.5% against the material-only version (158 games, 5 sec/move).
The resulting program can beat me, a former 10x10 draughts club player, in all variants. The 10x10 version scores about 1 draw per 20 games against Maximus (equal time), which amounts to expert level.

Before starting the experiment (playing a large amount of games) the following questions have to be answered.
1. When do we stop a game that will probably end in a draw?
2. How much time (or depth) do we give the program, for games to be representative?
3. How many games do we play?

For draughts there is a natural moment to stop a game: if the search score is near zero and we have drawish material: the player who is behind has a king and the other player has 3 or less pieces (10x10, 12x12, 14x14) or 2 or less pieces (6x6, 8x8; exception: 1 king against 3 is also a draw when the king-alone is on the main diagonal - if I am not mistaken).
For checkers there is no such moment. 2 kings win against 1, and sometimes also 1 against 1. The solution is to play with a high max. game length, and later truncate the games when a certain number of pieces is left. This corresponds to stopping when a virtual endgame database is reached (and we only want to know the game length, not the result). And this corresponds roughly to human players agreeing to a draw or resigning when they can predict the outcome. For 8x8 checkers the game length corresponds to the game length in human games if a 10-pieces (virtual) database is used - the largest feasible database that actually exists. For 10x10 draughts this is 8-pieces, for 12x12 draughts this would be 7-pieces, and for 14x14 draughts 6-pieces. For 6x6 checkers and 6x6 draughts I generated the 8-pieces database, but truncating games at 8 pieces results in artificially short games so I used 6-pieces in these cases (a bit arbitrary).

It is unclear which time or depth would be appropriate, so I chose to use incremental depth, which also makes it possible to observe the trend. I decided to play 10,000 games at each depth from 0 to at least 7, giving at least 70,000 games per variant. The games were stored, later truncated, duplicate games were removed, then the averages per game and per position were calculated. In total, over 600,000 games were played, of which over 450,000 unique (182 CPU days; 21 calendar days on 3 multi-core computers).
Branching Factor.png
Each datapoint represents <= 10,000 unique games.
Game Length.png
The branching factors found for 8x8 checkers and 10x10 draughts are higher than the previously found values for human games (checkers: 6.32 vs. 6.14; draughts: 8.95 vs. 8.22). This is influenced by the value of the evaluation mobility parameter. A lower value for mobility results in a lower branching factor. I tried several values and decided to use the one that resulted in the strongest play. Also the game length for 10x10 draughts is 10 ply more than in human games. But human games contain blunders, losing on time and grandmaster-draws, so the question is which number is more reliable.
Anyway, it means that we should take the following results with a grain of salt, they are ballpark figures. For the branching factor I took the average over all games with search depth 3 and higher, for the game length I took the average over all games with the 3 highest search depths. This gives:

Code: Select all

Game            Trunc.#p.    b^d      GTC >=
6x6 checkers    6         4.37^38   = 2.2 x 10^24
8x8 checkers    10        6.32^49   = 1.7 x 10^39
6x6 draughts    6         3.75^19   = 8.1 x 10^10
8x8 draughts    10        6.13^43   = 7.3 x 10^33
10x10 draughts  8         8.95^110  = 5.0 x 10^104
12x12 draughts  7        13.36^200  = 1.4 x 10^225
14x14 draughts  6        18.42^320  = 7.8 x 10^404

6x6 checkers and 6x6 draughts were also weakly solved (both are a draw), by building the 8-pieces WDL (win/draw/loss) databases and by using PNS (proof-number search), without a transposition table to avoid the GHI problem. But even the 4-pieces db's are sufficient for a quick proof (a few seconds). These games were previously solved by Rein Halbersma [6], using alpha-beta and a transposition table but without endgame databases (and disregarding GHI).
The 8-pieces DTW (distance-to-win) databases for 6x6 checkers and 6x6 draughts were also built. The longest win in 6x6 checkers is 147 ply (with 68 consecutive king-slide-moves), in 6x6 draughts this is 83 ply.

Conclusions

The following figure shows the results found, compared to some popular games from literature.
Complexity.png
Concluding, we can say that:
1. 6x6 checkers and 6x6 draughts are weakly solved.
2. 8x8 checkers is weakly solved [3]. 8x8 draughts is a candidate to weakly solve, and it can be solved much faster than checkers.
3. 10x10 draughts is more complex than currently "known" in the literature. The complexity is closer to chess than to checkers. Weakly solving 10x10 draughts is far away.
4. 12x12 draughts is more complex than chess, and very tactical (is my impression; I lost all test games).
5. 14x14 draughts is more complex than Go, and very strategic (is my impression; I won a few test games).

More complex means a game has a higher GTC, not necessarily it is more difficult. Especially 14x14 draughts will be a tough game for computers. Methods that are known to be highly successful for 8x8 checkers and 10x10 draughts will start to break down. There is virtually no use for an opening book and endgame databases, search depth will be strategically insignificant (compared to game length), and evaluation becomes increasingly difficult (to learn). So maybe AlphaGo-like techniques start to get useful here. And we don't have to get bored in the years to come.

Jan-Jaap

References
[1] Schaeffer & Lake: Solving the Game of Checkers (1996)
[2] Allis: Searching for Solutions in Games and Artificial Intelligence (1994)
[3] Schaeffer: Game over, Black to play and draw in Checkers (2007)
[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Game_complexity
[5] http://www.turbodambase.nl/tdamhome.php
[6] http://www.laatste.info/bb3/viewtopic.p ... &start=698

Hello Mr Horssen JJ

First of all congratulations on your beautiful work! I'm using your article and other complementary ones in order to make a comparison of complexity between the games of Draughts, Chess, Otello and GO.

I was surprised that these Draughts 14x14 ±10⁴⁰⁴ (GTC) calculations were larger than the GO 19x19 ±10³⁶⁰ calculations. Would applying the parameters you used for Drafts12x12 to the GO game, would its (GTC) also increase?

The median used for the calculation (GTC) of the 10x10 Game Draughts was 90(Ply)?

[pontel]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Go_and_mathematics